Peer-to-peer betting exchange, Matchbook, is preparing to launch a prediction market in the UK in January. Unlike a bookie or online casino, the new platform will enable players to effectively bet on yes or no answers to predetermined questions.
Punters will be able to predict, for example, whether Arsenal will hold on and win this year’s Premier League or whether Labour will still be in power in 2030.
The company is launching in the UK as it awaits a decision on whether it will receive a US trading licence, which would enable it to join the likes of Kalshi in the thriving US market.
Prediction market boom
Although they’re certainly not new, prediction markets came to the fore in 2025 as they took the US by storm. DraftKings and FanDuel joined the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket, offering prediction market platforms – people in the US wagered $44bn in 2025 on prediction markets.
Prediction market products are often available in states where gambling is strictly prohibited; because they are regulated as financial derivatives markets, they can operate in virtually any location.
Here in the UK, prediction markets are classified differently. They fall under the remit of the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC), which means they won’t avoid the recently announced tax rate increases.
Online sports betting, which includes peer-to-peer betting and event betting, will see tax rates increase from their current level of 15% to 25% in 2027.
Matchbook’s UK launch
Matchbook, which already operates a peer-to-peer betting exchange in the UK and is awaiting a prediction market licence in the US, will be subject to these 25% tax rates.
The operator was formed in 2004 and bought out in 2011. It is based in Guernsey and holds a UKGC licence, but it plans to expand into the US, as a trading platform, by offering prediction market betting.
Differences between UK & US prediction markets
However, the differences between classification in the UK and the US mean we are unlikely to see the same explosion of prediction markets here, despite Matchbook’s Chief Executive, Ronan McDonagh, stating that the only real difference between P2P betting and prediction markets is how the betting lines are laid out.
McDonagh said: “An exchange and a prediction market are fundamentally the same thing, it’s just the layout and there are some different nuances to it … So for us to move from an exchange to a prediction market is not a big leap.”
Another factor that may slow progress in the UK, but offers greater protection to players, is protection against insider trading.
One Polymarket trader raised suspicions of having insider knowledge earlier this month by predicting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would soon be out of office.
The trader had limited previous use of the platform but placed bets totalling $34,000, including doubling down on their bet just hours before Maduro was escorted to the US.
This bet not only raised speculation of insider trading but has also prompted US financial regulators to discuss the introduction of a ban on insider trading.
No exact date has been given for Matchbook’s launch in the UK, but it has been announced for January, with some speculation that it could happen as soon as next week.
