Andy Burnham is the clear odds-on favourite, at betting sites, to take over as leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister. The former Mayor of Greater Manchester has long been considered the frontrunner for the position, but his odds have shortened even further in the past few weeks.
Nominations to be Starmer's successor open 9 July, although the Labour Party has not provided an exact timeframe. Although Burnham is the runaway leader, there are other contenders to consider.
The door is open for Andy Burnham
Everything has seemingly fallen into place for Burnham, who has long been seen as a threat to Starmer's position.
Former MP for Makerfield and Burnham-ally, Josh Simons, stood down from his position in parliament. Burnham went on to win the 18 June by-election with 54.8% of the vote. The move put Burnham in parliament, an accepted constitutional convention to stand for PM.
Less than a week later, Starmer announced his resignation and, importantly, major contender Wes Streeting withdrew his name from the leadership challenge, actively backing Burnham. The door to Number 10 has been left wide open for Burnham.
Next Prime Minister market
At the beginning of June, prediction platform Polymarket suggested there was a 60% chance that Burnham would be the 'next UK Prime Minister in 2026'.
Now, the chance of Burnham's succession has increased to a massive 97%, thanks primarily to a seeming lack of serious contenders.
Not only has Streeting stood down, but former deputy leader Angela Rayner has not yet put her name forward as a contender and has a roughly 0.3% chance.
One possible contender is Darren Jones. Jones, who is Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, is not necessarily a serious contender.
If nobody mounts a serious challenge to Burnham, he will proceed without having to really put forward his stated Prime Ministerial aims - an accusation that has been levelled at the politician already. If there is competition, Burnham will have to give some indication where he stands and what he would do in power.
Jones has a 0.4% chance of becoming Prime Minister in 2026, according to Polymarket.
Away from Polymarket, UK bookmakers are equally bullish on Burnham's chances. Most are offering odds of 1/100. A lot of bookies are not currently taking bets on the next Prime Minister market, but you can still bet on the next Labour Party leader. Al Carns has emerged as the second favourite.
The former Royal Marines officer, who stood down as armed forces minister earlier this month, has also suggested Burnham needs to give more information on likely policy goals.
He said in an interview with ITV's Peston: "I'm not ready to make a decision on this in any way, shape or form.
"What I would say is we need to move from the politics which talk through the tactics and actually think about the strategy, and what I'm really looking for are big objective outcomes that we want to get to in 2029 and 2034-35".
Carns is the second favourite to succeed Starmer as the leader of the Labour Party, with odds of 30/1 available at some bookies. Carns' former boss, John Healey, stood down as Secretary of State for Defence on the same day as Carns and is the third favourite to take over. Punters can get odds of 33/1.
